4G licences only raise £2.34 billion in auction

It beggars belief that the UK Government has only managed to raise just £2.34 bn in licence fees for the the 4G licences.  It really does suggest that both the UK Government and Ofcom are totally disconnected either from the potential of the mobile internet market or they are totally incompetent at running an auction.  Whilst it was clear from the start that the market would not pay the astronomical figures paid for the original 3G licences of £21 billion raised by Gordon Brown,  the value of these licences should have achieved far beyond the Office of Budget Responsibilities own projection of £3.5bn, let alone the £2,34bn delivered.  Everything Everywhere, Hutchison 3G UK, Telefonica (O2), Vodafone (VOD) and BT (BT.A)'s Niche Spectrum Ventures secured the 4G licences.  It is a little disappointing that the winning bids all came from the usual suspects and that we will not see any new entrant to spice up the cosy market carve up between the major mobile networks and BT.


Given that the UK is one the largest mobile internet markets and combined with the superior quality of coverage and speed of performance offered by 4G’s 800 MHz network, the winning network providers and service providers stand to make significant revenue.  The mobile broadband should provide smartphone and tablet computer users with "superfast" download speeds, and will provide £20 billion of benefits for UK consumers over the next ten years, Ofcom said. 

However, when mobile operator EE, a joint venture between T-Mobile and Orange, became the first to launch a 4G service in October 2012 in a brief monopoly, it struggled to attract users. It was forced to cut its prices in January, lowering its entry price to £31 from £36 a month.

Despite this slow take up, I still believe that 4G has the power to become the de facto communications network for Internet access in the UK - a view clearly shared by BT - which is why they entered the auction to secure 4G capacity which they are using to extend their WiFi network.  4G has the capacity to be a game changer in technology terms and could change the local access in remote locations of 100 MHz Ethernet speed access reducing the need to take fibre to the home.

There may not be champagne corks popping in No 11 tonight, but I am sure they will be in the HQs of our major mobile providers.

Will the 4G Auction exceed £3.5bn? You bet!

Although Chancellor George Osborne is unlikely to raise anywhere near to Gordon Brown’s £21bn for 3G licences, I believe he may do rather better than is being reported.  Recent auctions in Europe have raised £3bn which suggests that the UK 4G licences will achieve £3.5bn.  However, it is suggested that Private equity firms, retail groups and banks as well as international telecom players have entered the fray alongside the UK’s Big Four mobile operators, EE, Vodafone, O2 and Three to win a slice of these 4G licences.

Ed Richards, chief executive of Ofcom, the telecoms watchdog, said that it had “fired the starting gun” on an auction process that would “release crucial capacity to support future growth, helping to boost UK productivity”.  Even in these recessionary times, the total U.K. Internet traffic is currently projected to increase by an average of 37 per cent each year until 2015. Although the majority of traffic remains on fixed networks, traffic on mobile networks is growing at a faster rate of 84% year-over-year and is expected to account for 11% of total traffic by 2015. 

Mobile access to the Internet accounts for even more time spent browsing, communicating, and transacting than this traffic data suggests, with fixed lines being used to consume bandwidth-intensive services such as video and mobile used more for social media. Indeed, the Internet is increasingly being accessed on mobile devices, whether through mobile connections or Wi-Fi networks, and the next generation of mobile communications of 4G will continue to shift this dynamic and economists have suggested could add as much as 0.5% to GDP in infrastructure investment alone not to mention the enhanced capability of the mobile web usage.

The superior quality of coverage and speed of performance offered by 4G’s 800MHz network offers significant improvement over the current 3G licences.  This superior system will add significantly to the opportunity for both network providers and service providers to make significant revenue.  The UK is one the largest mobile internet markets and consequently the opportunity  to own a slice of this market will in my opinion drive the value of these licences far beyond the projected £3.5bn and along with the additional impact 4G will have on the UK economy, the auction could bring a welcome additional windfall for Mr Osborne.

UK ISP, Cable, Dongle and 3G and 4G User numbers November 2012

Here is an update of the UK ISP market covering DSL and Cable Access market as well as the Mobile Dongle market in the UK.  I have also added in the published figures for 3G and 4G mobile access devices. I have used ITU published data for Broadband usage numbers and Neilson Ratings and ISP published figures to get an accurate picture as well all the reports and disclosures for each of the companies shown below. I believe these figures represent a reasonably accurate representation of the genuine adoption of broadband either via DSL, Cable or mobile dongle. Broadband connections included in this data cover download speeds equal to or faster than 256kbit/s.

Table 1. Broadband ISPs (Source: ITU, Neilsen, OFCOM & ISP Published Figures)


No.	ISP/Provider	User Numbers	% of UK Market
1	BT Retail	6,444,600	30.43%
2	Virgin Media	4,413,400	20.84%
3	Sky Broadband	4,103,000	19.47%
4	TalkTalk Group	4,043,000	19.09%
5	Orange	723,000	3.41%
6	O2	579,000	2.73%
7	Kingston Comms	178,200	0.84%
8	Zen Internet	94,000	0.44%
9	Entanet	92,000	0.43%
10	Thus Group	87,000	0.41%


The major change over the past year has been been the continued growth of Sky Broadband which has seen it rise above TalkTalk.  Undoubtedly the combination of the Sky bundled offerings with its satellite TV content has driven this growth.  Recent launch of Talk Talk's TV set-top box plus the major BT play into football are both aiming at trying to redress this strategy.  Clearly Orange and O2 are seeking to enhance their position in the UK market through growth in the connected Tablet market which is experiencing phenomenal growth as eluded to below. 

The total UK Internet connectivity market is not only made up of Broadband ISPs, but connection is now frequently through 3G and most recently 4G mobile network connections.  The Broadband ISP market size is estimated to be just over 21 million broadband connections. The figures for mobile connectivity is much harder to obtain, however, given that there are now many millions of Internet enable phones in use today. However, OFCOM indicate in their latest facts on the market that there are 5.1 million mobile broadband users in addition the 21 million fixed line users.