Page Impressions Ltd Blogcetera: Can you Google the Economy?

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Can you Google the Economy?


With over a billion searches a day, Google is arguably one the wonders of the modern world.  Search for almost anything and you will be returned tens of thousands, if not millions of results in a fraction of a second.  Recent studies are now suggesting that search patterns can tells us more than just the cheapest source of the must have gadget or who was the lead character in ‘Bonanza’.
Internet advertisers have long understood the power of search to establish trends in usage and demand for products and services to produce instantaneous views of economic activity known as ‘nowcasting’, but recent research is considering whether these trends in web activity can actually provide an accurate forecast of what is happening in the economy.
If you think that your random search for a suitable Christmas gift for your partner is of little interest to anyone other than yourself, think again!  Last year no lesser august body than the Bank of England reviewed all the recent studies on Google search activity to understand whether there was any validity in the proposition that economic forecasts could be based on our search behaviour.
In particular, the Bank homed in on two particular areas of interest in order to consider search as a suitable allegory for an accurate economic forecast.  They focused on unemployment and the housing market, both areas which are frequently quoted a real world factors related to economic activity.  They found that Internet search data have a number of appealing properties as economic indicators. They are extremely timely and cover a potentially vast sample of respondents (approximately 50% of the adult population in the United Kingdom now use the internet every day). In contrast to most traditional survey methods, they are collected as a by-product of normal activity, rather than requiring individuals or firms to respond to survey questions after the event. This can avoid problems associated with non-response or inaccurate responses. And it also means that information is continually collected on a wider range of issues, rather than just on a few pre-determined questions. As a result, search data can help analyse issues that arise unexpectedly.
Although it remains early days, this analysis suggests that internet search data contain valuable information for analysis of unemployment and house prices. These applications treated the search data in a similar manner to existing surveys in conducting standard regression analysis. However, internet search data also has the potential to answer different sorts of questions to existing indicators. Such data has the particular advantage that it can help analyse issues that arise unexpectedly at short notice. Whereas survey data must be consciously collected based on pre-determined questions whereas internet data is collected based on behaviour at the a particular time and trend data going back into the recent past helps to flesh out our understanding.  Such data is generally generated without engendering any form of bias that studies and surveys often find it difficult to avoid.  Equally the idle musings of millions of internet users may well provide a great deal of ‘noise’ which obscures the key trends.
However, without doubt the internet and associated social media reflect the pulse of today’s society and as such reflect our collective social mood. People learn what others are thinking and express what they themselves are thinking by posting and promoting their thoughts and opinions on websites like Twitter, Facebook, and on blogs. People reveal what is on their minds by querying topics on search engines and together create a learning process and a continuous feedback loop, whereby people form, express, and reveal expectations in real-time.
If the revealed expectations derived from Google Trends suggest genuine predictive power for future outcomes, then the symbiotic nature of social media and internet search behaviour suggests that these channels may facilitate self-fulfilling prophecies and if the predicted outcomes relate to economic events, then analysis of Google’s search trends can become important tool for the Bank of England to gauge and manage inflation expectations.

7 comments:

Unknown said...

Catering Jakarta http://jasatraining.xyz Jasa Pemasaran Promosi Bisnis Online Marketing Rental Mobil di Jakarta krim pemutih ketiak grosi baju korea konveksi baju jual apartemen alam sutera Jasa Bangun Rumah jasa kontraktor drainase Jual Paving Block Jasa Pemasaran Sewa Mobil Jakarta jasa konsultasi properti Little Forum jasa bangun rumah jual rumah serang Jasa Video Shooting jual apartemen banten serang Jasa Pemasaran krim pemutih wajah herbal Jasa Pemasaran krim pemutih wajah herbal Rumah Dijual BSD Rental Mobil Jakarta Lomba SEO Catering Jakarta http://jasatraining.xyz Rumah Dijual BSD Promosi Bisnis Online Marketing Rental Mobil di Jakarta krim pemutih ketiak grosi baju korea Rumah Dijual BSD jual apartemen alam sutera Jasa Bangun Rumah jasa kontraktor drainase

Unknown said...

Rumah Dijual Di Delatinos Dijual Rumah Di Gad Model Pagar Besi Minimalis Mobil Truk Gandeng Butik Baju Murah Tanah Dijual Di Bsd City Grosir Tas Fashion Online Rumah Dijual Serpong Jual Rumah Di Bsd 2 Genteng Banyuwangi Permainan Mobil Truk Tas Tas Import Batako Press Desain Rumah Kost Minimalis Desain Ruko Genteng Kaca Genteng M Class Jual Karbon Aktif Arsitektur Klasik

oakleyses said...

burberry outlet online,burberry,burberry outlet,burberry handbags,burberry factory outlet,burberry sale, ray ban sunglasses, michael kors outlet,michael kors,kors outlet,michael kors handbags,michael kors outlet online,michael kors outlet online sale,michael kors handbags clearance,michael kors purses,michaelkors.com,michael kors bags,michael kors shoes,michaelkors,cheap michael kors, tiffany and co jewelry,tiffany and co outlet,tiffany and co,tiffany's,tiffanys,tiffany co,tiffany jewelry, rolex watches,rolex,watches for men,watches for women,omega watches,replica watches,rolex watches for sale,rolex replica,rolex watch,cartier watches,rolex submariner,fake rolex,rolex replica watches,replica rolex, tiffany and co jewelry,tiffany and co outlet,tiffany and co,tiffany's,tiffanys,tiffany co,tiffany jewelry, oakley sunglasses, longchamp handbags,longchamp,longchamp outlet,longchamp bags,long champ, uggs, nike free,free running,nike free run,nike free 5.0,free running 2,nike running shoes,nike free trainer,nike free trainer 5.0,free runs,free run 5.0, michael kors outlet store,michael kors outlet,michael kors outlet online,michael kors,kors outlet,michael kors handbags,michael kors outlet online sale,michael kors handbags clearance,michael kors purses,michaelkors.com,michael kors bags,michael kors shoes,michaelkors,cheap michael kors, tory burch outlet,tory burch,tory burch handbags,tory burch shoes,tory burch sale,toryburch,tory burch sandals,toryburch.com,tory burch flip flops, prada handbags,prada,prada sunglasses,prada shoes,prada outlet,prada bags, kate spade outlet,kate spade,katespade,kate spade handbags, louis vuitton handbags,vuitton handbags,louis vuitton bags,louis vuitton purses, nike shoes,nike outlet,nike factory,nike store,nike factory outlet,nike outlet store,cheap nike shoes,nike sneakers, uggs outlet, louis vuitton outlet online,louis vuitton,louis vuitton outlet,louisvuitton.com,authentic louis vuitton,louis vuitton factory outlet,cheap louis vuitton, chanel handbags,chanel bags,chanel sunglasses,chanel purses,chanel outlet, louis vuitton outlet,louis vuitton outlet online,louis vuitton,louisvuitton.com,authentic louis vuitton,louis vuitton factory outlet,cheap louis vuitton, longchamp,longchamp handbags,longchamp outlet,longchamp bags,long champ

oakleyses said...

kate spade handbags,kate spade,kate spade outlet,katespade, nike free,free run,nike free run,nike free pas cher,nike free run pas cher,nike free france, nike air max,air max,air max pas cher,air max one,air max 90,air max france, hollister,abercrombie,abercrombie fitch,hollister france,hollister pas cher,abercrombie and fitch,hollister pas cher, timberland pas cher, true religion, nike air max, ralph lauren,ralph lauren uk,ralph lauren outlet,polo ralph lauren outlet, air force,nike air force,air force 1,air force one,nike air force 1,nike air force one,air force one nike, mulberry,mulberry handbags,mulberry outlet,mulberry bags,mulberry uk, nike air max, michael kors,sac michael kors,michael kors pas cher,sac michael kors pas cher,michael kors france, oakley pas cher,oakley,oakley soldes,lunette oakley pas cher,oakley france, michael kors, vans,vans pas cher,vans soldes, lululemon,lululemon canada,lululemon outlet canada,lululemon outlet online, true religion, longchamp,sac longchamp,longchamps,longchamp pas cher,sac longchamp pas cher,longchamp pliage,longchamp soldes,sac longchamps,longchamp france, hogan,hogan outlet,scarpe hogan,hogan sito ufficiale,hogan interactive, nike free run, air max,nike air max,air max pas cher,air max one,air max 90,air max france, tn pas cher,nike tn,nike tn pas cher,nike tn requin,tn requin,tn requin pas cher, coach outlet,coach factory outlet,coach outlet store,coach factory,coach outlet store online,coach factory online,coach factory outlet online,coach outlet online, north face, michael kors,michael kors uk,michael kors handbags,michael kors bags, nike roshe uk, coach outlet store online,coach outlet store,coach outlet, louboutin,chaussure louboutin,louboutin pas cher,chaussures louboutin,chaussure louboutin pas cher,louboutin france, true religion, michael kors canada, nike blazer

Anonymous said...

louboutin pas cher, converse pas cher, true religion jeans, nike free, longchamp, true religion outlet, coach purses, nike trainers, burberry, coach outlet, air max, new balance pas cher, replica handbags, true religion jeans, nike roshe run, nike roshe, north face, ralph lauren pas cher, sac guess, mulberry, true religion jeans, timberland, michael kors, tn pas cher, longchamp pas cher, ray ban pas cher, nike huarache, nike air max, north face, hermes, oakley pas cher, vans pas cher, hollister, ray ban uk, hollister pas cher, abercrombie and fitch, ralph lauren uk, nike blazer, michael kors, sac longchamp, nike free run uk, air force, lululemon, michael kors, air jordan pas cher, nike air max, lacoste pas cher, hogan, nike air max, michael kors, vanessa bruno

Anonymous said...

toms shoes, canada goose uk, sac louis vuitton pas cher, canada goose, hollister, barbour jackets, converse outlet, barbour, louis vuitton, bottes ugg, moncler, marc jacobs, louis vuitton, supra shoes, juicy couture outlet, moncler, moncler, montre pas cher, moncler, doke gabbana outlet, replica watches, ugg pas cher, louis vuitton, canada goose, karen millen, pandora jewelry, moncler, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, doudoune canada goose, coach outlet, pandora charms, swarovski crystal, links of london, pandora jewelry, canada goose, lancel, louis vuitton, wedding dresses, moncler, pandora charms, canada goose outlet, moncler, ugg boots uk, thomas sabo, canada goose outlet, juicy couture outlet, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, canada goose, swarovski, moncler outlet
ninest123 16.02

Anonymous said...

may be useful for all, helpful article once and pardon me permission to share also here Cara menjadi agen qnc jelly gamat