Latest Trends online according to Razorfish

Each year Razorfish, an interactive marketing company, publishes its “Digital Outlook Report.”  The report is very interesting for anyone who is interested in making a living from the internet.

The first section identifies the key trends to watch over the coming year before examining them in greater depth.  They are:-

Trends to Watch

1.      Advertisers will turn to “measurability” and “differentiation”
in the recession.

2.      Search will not be immune to the impact of the economy.

3.      Social Influence Marketing will go mainstream.

4.      Online ad networks will contract; open ad exchanges will expand.

5.      This year, mobile will get smarter.

6.      Research and measurement will enter the digital age.

7.      “Portable” and “beyond-the-browser” opportunities will create new touch points for brands and content owners.

8.      Going digital will help TV modernize.

Whilst the document is overly long at 180 pages and does offer a very US centric view, it is definitely worth a look and ties up with many of the issues that I have been looking at over the past three years on this blog.  Get your copy from this link:-  Razorfish : Digital Outlook Report 2009

UK Mobile Dongle User Numbers – Feb/March 2009

I have been researching the number of users now using 3G mobile dongles to link to the Internet in order to offer some insight into this largely hidden phenomenon.

Globally the market for 3G dongles is set to grow from 20 million units in 2008 to 26 million units in 2009 despite the downturn.

In Europe, some of the strongest growth has been recorded mainly due to the near saturation level of mobile usage compared to other parts of the world due to aggressive marketing push from the operators and the handset manufacturers.  This has resulted in an interesting development amongst Generation Y, those users born between 1978-2000.  This group have led the way in not bothering with fixed access telephony and are consequently adopting the 3G Dongle as their preferred method of Internet access.  Much of this growth is based on competitive all-you-can-eat tariffs and ease of use.

In the UK, which makes up approximately 3.5% of worldwide dongle sales, the mobile dongle user community now makes up over 4% of the overall broadband market.  These figures may not seem very impressive; however, with overall dongle sales set in 2009 to see 15% growth over 2008 and with the traditional broadband market at a standstill, the dongle market is likely to continue to make significant in-roads into the broadband market in 2009.  With increasing choice of low cost tariffs and user numbers in the UK could easily top one million by the end of 2009.

UK Market – February 2009

No	Operator	Number of Users	% Share	Comment
1	3	255,000	34%	The established leader of the dongle market, 3 has led the pack with its innovative pricing packages.
2	T-Mobile	161,000	22%	T-Mobile has used the UK as its primary test market for their dongle strategy and their innovative “webNwalk” service.
3	Vodafone	132,000	18%	Vodafone is the fastest growing of the major networks aggressively promoting and subsidising dongles because they are viewed as a secondary device that provides additional revenues for carriers beyond a traditional handset.
4	O2 (Dongles only)	122,000	16%	02 were the first major mobile network to enter the broadband market in the UK following its acquisition of Be, however, this seems to have been a distraction which has slowed their adoption of a dongle strategy.
5	Orange	57,000	7.7%	Orange seem to stumble from drama to crisis.  Their 3G Dongle strategy is little better.  They are seeing declining share of the broadband market and have been slow to put together a competitive offering for the dongle market.
6	Virgin Mobile	15,000	2%	Somewhat off the pace with their 3G dongle priced at £15 per month running over T-Mobiles network as MVNO.
	Total	742,000

To get an accurate picture, a number of published and unpublished sources have been used.  One needs to guard against the marketing hype that is put about regarding sales of individual networks, but the 3G dongle market is viewed as an area of vital importance by the mobile networks.  It will be interesting to see how the traditional ISPs respond.  Late in 2008, BT Broadband started to offer a WiFi dongle that connected to their network hotspots, BT Openzone, to their customers as an extension of their standard contract.  Neither  Sky or Tiscali have a competitive offering as yet, although Tiscali could still make a good fit for Vodafone.

Are you on your way to work or still in bed?

Today Google is introducing a new mobile widget to let you broadcast your location to select friends, family, and colleagues based on the coordinates of your mobile phone (via GPS or otherwise).  GPS enable mobiles are becoming increasingly popular and this sounds like a great new application. Google Mobile Maps new application is called Google Latitude and will enable you to let whoever you wish to know precisely where you are at any moment in time.

Now that is fine from a social perspective, but how long will it be before that company phone has the feature enable and your boss can track your every movement.  No more saying you are stuck in snow at the station when you are really taking a day off in bed!

Don’t feel like being tracked? Well you can just hide yourself from select “friends,” or manually enter a false location as your current one. This might arise certain suspicion on the part of you boss or partner though.

Still I think for most people it will be a fun new application.  You can download it from your mobile browser at google.com/latitude and start to encourage your friends to do likewise.  Latitude will work in 27 countries including the UK and most major European countries on Blackberries, Windows Mobile, and Nokia S60s. Android will begin rolling out over the next week, and an iPhone app is coming soon.  You can add it to your PC or Laptop to.  Another great application for the “mobility” to log into.

Will 2009 be the year of the Dongle?

With the global market for 3G dongles set to grow from 20 million units in 2008 to 26 million units in 2009, the dongle is set to become a standard accessory for the “mobility”.  Fuelled by subsidized access from the major mobile networks such as Vodafone and 3, the dongle is grabbing an increasing share of the internet access market.   Nokia was reported in December to be launching a new Nokia dongle which has been unofficially christened the “donkle”.

This is all very bad news for traditional fixed line ISPs and Cable operators who with one or two notable exceptions have failed to capture any significant numbers from the IPTV developments.  Now plain utility broadband (PUB) is about to be squeezed by the major mobile companies aggressively moving on to their turf.

With 3G Broadband dongle service costing as little as £10 a month and you get a free laptop offers, ISP’s PUB service is going to find it hard to compete.  As we have seen with the growth of the mobile telephony market, the market has seen the entry of all manner of players from telcos to supermarkets, all seeking to tie their users in with some very low offer just to retain customers for a broad range of services.  ISPs look like a threatened species and will need to evolve very quickly if they are to survive.

Whilst Europe is seeing double digit growth for the major mobile players, the US market which is traditionally slow to adopt mobile developments is just beginning to see the dongle develop a small market share.  The entry of Nokia and the proof of success in Europe will undoubtedly see the likes of Vodafone and T-Mobile seeking to capitalise on their European experience in the US.   This will undoubtedly drive some of the middle rank ISPs to the wall.  2009 will be a very interesting year.

Is Watching TV on Your Mobile Worthwhile?

With 3G now the de-facto standard across a whole range of mobile phones, one of the apparently most attractive applications is broadcast IPTV. It is now possible to watch the range of BBC content and Sky content over the mobile networks. The only problem is likely to be your download limit which could make “free” TV seem very expensive.

BBC iPlayer is available on the Nokia's N96 and it is possible to use your iPhone or iPod Touch to pick up the latest BBC re-runs. The BBC is aiming to deliver TV to an increasing number of mobile devices. Take a look at Freebe TV and you will find a incredible range of TV that can be viewed on you mobile. So there is no shortage of content and it is increasing daily.

However, is watching TV a realistic option on your mobile. The largest mobile screens tend to be limited to a maximum of 12 cm by 6 cm or about the same size as a packet of 20! This is considerably smaller that most portable DVD players. Sport has been one the most promoted services particular football, but it does tend to turn into a video version of that old standby the “Spot the Ball” competition.

Using Laptops terminals such as the latest Sony Vaio Z Series or the ASUS EEE PC to access TV is fairly accessible, but watching a 2 inch square screen is a very different proposition.

Maybe the way to go is to use a “Personal Media Viewer” from Myvu or Vuzix, which offers both a stylish way to watch TV and a “big screen” effect. The glasses are still an expensive add on to your iPhone or Nokia from £100 to £250, but from my perspective it is the only way to go to get an enjoyable experience. The effect is to appear you are watching the equivalent of a 44 inch wide screen TV. The most expensive devices allow you to look through the screen to be aware of what is going on around you. It will come as no surprise to learn that these devices have evolved from the military industry.  

I suspect that Mobile TV is probably unstoppable, but it will be largely a gimmick unless you get a pair of personal media glasses!