iOS Continues to dominate mobile market for mobile ads, but for how long?

Most recent reports suggest that Apple's iOS continues to dominate the mobile advertising market in terms of impressions and revenue generation delivering almost 44% of all ad impressions and almost 50% of revenue (Figure 1).  The mobile market is increasingly looking like a two horse race between Apple iOS and Android and whilst on the face of it Apple continues to dominate, the decline of any alternative operating system other than Android suggests that in the near term Android will soon pass iOS as it becomes the de-facto alternative operation system.

Traffic share (mobile phone OS)

OS Share	% of Traffic	% of Revenue
Android	31.24%	28.08%
Phone	30.58%	27.76%
Tablet	0.66%	0.32%
iOS	43.75%	49.36%
IPhone	30.88%	36.44%
iPad	8.04%	10.21%
iTouch	4.83%	2.71%
RIM	3.37%	5.41%
Symbian	5.16%	1.56%
Windows	0.26%	0.30%
Other	16.21%	15.27%

Source: Opera  mediaworks

The challenge presented by Android is strengthening as Google and its partners increase the rate of innovation.  Apple is clearly showing signs of innovation fatigue.  A recent report by Goldman Sachs pointed to several concerns, including “delayed product cycles, supply chain difficulties, product price erosion, and a slower pace of product innovation.” Apple’s ability to continue innovating at the breakneck pace it maintained over the past few years remains a major concern.  The recent performance of Google Play surpassing Apple's App Store downloads particularly in emerging markets underline the direction of travel.

This rebalancing of the market suggests that in the longer term the Android market is set to become the most important mobile advertising market.

iPhone 5 Decline in face Samsung Challenge?

Sales of the iPhone 5 appear to be slowing dramatically in the UK and around the world. In what seems like a bid to drum up sales, for the first time I can recall, my mobile provider is making unsolicited calls to remind that I am due an upgrade and have the opportunity of getting my hands on an iPhone 5 as part of my package.  Previous it appeared I needed to be best friends with the chairman of the mobile operator to get such an offer.   Furthermore, according to the Wall Street Journal, Apple has cut an iPhone 5 display manufacturing order by half citing "weaker-than-expected demand." The display order, which was targeted for the January to March quarter, was cut along with other key component manufacturing in December.

Given the crowded marketplace that the smartphone arena has become, it is only good business that there should be changes to manufacturing orders.  However, this data seems to confirm that globally, Samsung is beginning to get the upper hand in sales of smartphones in head-on competition with Apple.  With 1.3 billion smartphones in use worldwide by end of 2012 and 465 million Android smartphones sold in 2012. Google’s operating system has now captured a 66% global market share.  Samsung has used the Android OS to drive sales with their latest smartphone the Galaxy SIII with shipments estimated to be 18 million units for the third quarter of 2012, while smartphone and overall mobile device shipments are projected at 59 million and 106 million units respectively.

Apple is rumoured to be accelerating the launch of the iPhone 6 to combat this growing Korean threat and thus it is of little surprise that they are ramping down iPhone 5 production to make way for a newer model.  Clearly being sued by Apple is good commercial business for Samsung since it has crystallized the belief that the once mighty Apple may have a worthy competitor in the form of Samsung.  Litigation can have unexpected consequences and certainly it seems it may be the case that Apples lawyers are better at marketing Samsung's products than helping their own side win.

UK ISP, Cable and Dongle Users January 2011

Here is an update of the UK ISP market covering DSL and Cable Access market as well as the Mobile Dongle market in the UK. I have used ITU published data for Broadband usage numbers and Neilson Ratings and ISP published figures to get an accurate picture as well all the reports and disclosures for each of the companies shown below. I believe these figures represent a reasonably accurate representation of the genuine adoption of broadband either via DSL, Cable or mobile dongle. Broadband connections included in this data cover download speeds equal to or faster than 256kbit/s

ISP		Total	% of UK Accts.
BT (inc Plusnet)		5,341,000	27.00%
Talk Talk		4,249,000	21.50%
Virgin Media		4,242,000	21.49%
Sky		3,006,000	15.20%
Orange		795,000	4.00%
O2 (Be Broadband)		663,800	3.40%
Royal Mail		600,000	3.00%
3 (Mobile Dongles)		255,000	1.30%
T-Mobile (Dongle)		195,000	0.90%
Vodafone (Dongle)		190,000	0.80%
Kingston		178,200	0.70%
Thus		93,000	0.50%

The UK Broadband market has become very concentrated with almost 20 million broadband accounts with over 98% concentrated in the top twelve providers with a high degree of consolidation among the top 5 players. The standard speed offering has increased from around 2Mb to 8Mb over the past two years, however many of the grand claims of the leading providers offering 20Mb broadband access is far of the mark with most only achieving 7-8 Mb on average.
The super fast 40Mb and 50Mb deals are beginning to enter the market but mainly only appeal to specialist hard care users in the consumer market.

Whilst the growth of mobile dongles has slowed the market continues to evolve. There are a number of players offering a range of speeds and costs. The market for the iPad and Kindle 3G devices is growing very quickly through sim only offerings. The new tablet applications such as the iPad and Samsung Galaxy and the soon to be launched Motorola Zoom represent the most exciting sector of the market and the mobile networks are likely to be climbing over each other to offer the 3G broadband connectivity. A quick look at the offerings below reveal the developments in the dongle market which will form the basis of any 3G Sim deals for the new tablets.

Who offers mobile broadband via mobile broadband dongles?

• Vodafone offers a range of mobile broadband dongles, the most popular being its small and speedy "USB Modem stick" starting at £15 a month. With speeds of up to 7.2Mb and download allowance of 3Gb, this offer is a real no-brainer.
• 3's mobile USB modem dongle comes free on many of the 3 packages. Offering 1Gb downloads and speeds of up to 7.2Mb, 3’s £10 per month offer is great value for money.
• T Mobile's USB dongles offer speeds of up to 7.2Mb and download allowances of 3Gb - 9/10 T Mobile customers say it "works like a dream".
• Orange's dongle is the sleekest and fastest they've ever made, offering speeds of up to 7.2Mb.
• Virgin Media was late to the mobile broadband market, but it is making some very attractive offers speeds of up 7.2Mb at excellent price points.
• O2 dongles get you online at speeds of up to 3.6Mb and start from just £10 per month.

Skype and Nokia are bonding – will it lead to marriage?

Latest news from the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona is that Skype and Nokia have announced a partnership to provide free and low-cost calling for Nokia's N-series of Smartphones, starting with the N97 later this year.  Skype’s software will be integrated into the phone's address book, providing presence detection when other Skype contacts are online, as well as enabling use of the Skype instant messaging client.  Significantly, the Skype service will be available both over Wi-Fi and 3G high-speed networks, so users won't need to be near a wireless hotspot to make Skype voice calls. Users will be able to communicate with Skype-to-Skype voice calls, as well as make mobile and landline Skype calls at their low VoIP prices.  Sony Ericsson also has a Skype on its Xperia  X1 device, running Windows Mobile 6.1 and Skype has a mobile ‘lite’ version running in beta on LG, Motorola, Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson phones.

How will this go down with the operators I wonder?  I suspect this will not be viewed as such great news by the operators, who may view this as an attempt by Skype and Nokia to eat their lunch.  In future I expect that the major operators will be less than happy to offer subsidised VoIP capable Nokia phones to their users.  This story clearly has legs and given that eBay have indicated that Skype is no longer compatible with their long term strategy and have effectively hoisted a large “For Sale” sign over them, this move just might make Skype a good fit with either a hungry operator or an aggressive handset manufacturer.