UK ISP, Mobile Internet and Cable Subscriber Numbers - December 2013

Here is an update of the UK ISP market covering DSL and Cable Access market as well as the Mobile Dongle market in the UK.  I have also added in the published figures for 3G and 4G mobile access devices. I have used ITU published data for Broadband usage numbers and Neilson Ratings and ISP published figures to get an accurate picture as well all the reports and disclosures for each of the companies shown below. I believe these figures represent a reasonably accurate representation of the genuine adoption of broadband either via DSL, Cable or mobile dongle. Broadband connections included in this data cover download speeds equal to or faster than 256kbit/s.

Table 1. Broadband ISPs (Source: ITU, Neilsen, OFCOM & ISP Published Figures)

No.	ISP/Provider	User Numbers	% of UK Market (inc Mobile)
1	BT Retail	6,961,000	26.07%
2	Sky Broadband	5,017,000	18.79%
3	Virgin Media	4,488,600	16.81%
4	TalkTalk Group	4,076,000	15.27%
5	Orange	714,000	2.67%
6	Kingston Comms	178,200	0.67%
7	Zen Internet	94,000	0.32%
8	Vodafone UK	85,000	0.31%
9	Thus Group	80,000	0.30%
10	Entanet	70,000	0.26%

BT continues to grow its user base at the expense of the smaller players.  Sky Broadband has continued to grow, primarily by acquisition having taken over O2’s broadband user base.  However, although BT Sport is still in its early days, it is clearly impacting Sky’s organic growth.

The total UK Internet connectivity market is not only made up of Broadband ISPs, but connection is now frequently through 3G and a growing 4G user base. Consequently I have taken the total market as being made up of both the fixed-line broadband and mobile internet access as I think it would be erroneous to suggest that they are not part of the same competitive market. The Broadband ISP market size is estimated to be just under 22 million broadband connections. OFCOM estimates the mobile internet connectivity to be in the region of 5.0 million mobile broadband users in addition the 21.7 million fixed line users.  So the total market is estimated at 26.7million subscribers.  Of these super broadband users make up just 3.7million.

4G licences only raise £2.34 billion in auction

It beggars belief that the UK Government has only managed to raise just £2.34 bn in licence fees for the the 4G licences.  It really does suggest that both the UK Government and Ofcom are totally disconnected either from the potential of the mobile internet market or they are totally incompetent at running an auction.  Whilst it was clear from the start that the market would not pay the astronomical figures paid for the original 3G licences of £21 billion raised by Gordon Brown,  the value of these licences should have achieved far beyond the Office of Budget Responsibilities own projection of £3.5bn, let alone the £2,34bn delivered.  Everything Everywhere, Hutchison 3G UK, Telefonica (O2), Vodafone (VOD) and BT (BT.A)'s Niche Spectrum Ventures secured the 4G licences.  It is a little disappointing that the winning bids all came from the usual suspects and that we will not see any new entrant to spice up the cosy market carve up between the major mobile networks and BT.


Given that the UK is one the largest mobile internet markets and combined with the superior quality of coverage and speed of performance offered by 4G’s 800 MHz network, the winning network providers and service providers stand to make significant revenue.  The mobile broadband should provide smartphone and tablet computer users with "superfast" download speeds, and will provide £20 billion of benefits for UK consumers over the next ten years, Ofcom said. 

However, when mobile operator EE, a joint venture between T-Mobile and Orange, became the first to launch a 4G service in October 2012 in a brief monopoly, it struggled to attract users. It was forced to cut its prices in January, lowering its entry price to £31 from £36 a month.

Despite this slow take up, I still believe that 4G has the power to become the de facto communications network for Internet access in the UK - a view clearly shared by BT - which is why they entered the auction to secure 4G capacity which they are using to extend their WiFi network.  4G has the capacity to be a game changer in technology terms and could change the local access in remote locations of 100 MHz Ethernet speed access reducing the need to take fibre to the home.

There may not be champagne corks popping in No 11 tonight, but I am sure they will be in the HQs of our major mobile providers.

UK ISP, Cable and Dongle Users January 2011

Here is an update of the UK ISP market covering DSL and Cable Access market as well as the Mobile Dongle market in the UK. I have used ITU published data for Broadband usage numbers and Neilson Ratings and ISP published figures to get an accurate picture as well all the reports and disclosures for each of the companies shown below. I believe these figures represent a reasonably accurate representation of the genuine adoption of broadband either via DSL, Cable or mobile dongle. Broadband connections included in this data cover download speeds equal to or faster than 256kbit/s

ISP		Total	% of UK Accts.
BT (inc Plusnet)		5,341,000	27.00%
Talk Talk		4,249,000	21.50%
Virgin Media		4,242,000	21.49%
Sky		3,006,000	15.20%
Orange		795,000	4.00%
O2 (Be Broadband)		663,800	3.40%
Royal Mail		600,000	3.00%
3 (Mobile Dongles)		255,000	1.30%
T-Mobile (Dongle)		195,000	0.90%
Vodafone (Dongle)		190,000	0.80%
Kingston		178,200	0.70%
Thus		93,000	0.50%

The UK Broadband market has become very concentrated with almost 20 million broadband accounts with over 98% concentrated in the top twelve providers with a high degree of consolidation among the top 5 players. The standard speed offering has increased from around 2Mb to 8Mb over the past two years, however many of the grand claims of the leading providers offering 20Mb broadband access is far of the mark with most only achieving 7-8 Mb on average.
The super fast 40Mb and 50Mb deals are beginning to enter the market but mainly only appeal to specialist hard care users in the consumer market.

Whilst the growth of mobile dongles has slowed the market continues to evolve. There are a number of players offering a range of speeds and costs. The market for the iPad and Kindle 3G devices is growing very quickly through sim only offerings. The new tablet applications such as the iPad and Samsung Galaxy and the soon to be launched Motorola Zoom represent the most exciting sector of the market and the mobile networks are likely to be climbing over each other to offer the 3G broadband connectivity. A quick look at the offerings below reveal the developments in the dongle market which will form the basis of any 3G Sim deals for the new tablets.

Who offers mobile broadband via mobile broadband dongles?

• Vodafone offers a range of mobile broadband dongles, the most popular being its small and speedy "USB Modem stick" starting at £15 a month. With speeds of up to 7.2Mb and download allowance of 3Gb, this offer is a real no-brainer.
• 3's mobile USB modem dongle comes free on many of the 3 packages. Offering 1Gb downloads and speeds of up to 7.2Mb, 3’s £10 per month offer is great value for money.
• T Mobile's USB dongles offer speeds of up to 7.2Mb and download allowances of 3Gb - 9/10 T Mobile customers say it "works like a dream".
• Orange's dongle is the sleekest and fastest they've ever made, offering speeds of up to 7.2Mb.
• Virgin Media was late to the mobile broadband market, but it is making some very attractive offers speeds of up 7.2Mb at excellent price points.
• O2 dongles get you online at speeds of up to 3.6Mb and start from just £10 per month.

UK ISP, Cable and Dongle User Numbers - April 2009

Here is an update of the UK ISP market covering DSL and Cable Access market as well as the Mobile Dongle market in the UK. I have used ITU published data for Broadband usage numbers and Neilson Ratings and ISP published figures to get an accurate picture as well all the reports and disclosures for each of the companies shown below. I believe these figures represent a reasonably accurate representation of the genuine adoption of broadband either via DSL, Cable or mobile dongle. Broadband connections included in this data cover download speeds equal to or faster than 256kbit/s.

ISP      Total    % of   UK Accts. BT (inc Plusnet) 4,700,000 26.05% Virgin Media (inc Virgin.net) 3,934,800 21.80% CPW (inc AOL) 2,700,000 14.96% Sky 1,955,000 10.83% Tiscali UK 1,768,000 9.80% Orange 1,000,000 5.54% Royal Mail 560,000 3.10% O2 (Be & Dongles) 340,866 1.89% 3 (Mobile Dongles) 255,000 1.42% Kingston 203,000 1.12% T-Mobile (Dongle) 161,000 0.89% Vodafone (Dongle) 132,000 0.73% Thus 126,000 0.66% Entanet 92,000 0.51% Clara.net UK 72,000 0.40% Breathe 12,000 0.07% Supanet 6,000 0.03% Others 28,000 0.16% Total 18,045,666 100.00%

 

The UK market exceeded 18 million broadband connections for the first time with all the growth being shown by the dongle market.  Both Tiscali and Orange again reported lower figures and still no news on the Tiscali sell-off.  The new battle ground for users appears to be shifting to the FTTH (fibre to the home) and FTTB (fibre to the building).  BT announced their high speed initiative targeting 29 areas with their 40 Mbps offering.  Virgin complained that many of the areas targeted were already served by their 50Mbps service.

An interesting development is the planned development of local authority run “ISPs” planned on the back of i3 Group Ltd (formerly H20Networks) in Dundee and Bournemouth who could be offering Ethernet interconnectivity to the home of a fully duplex 100Mbps 55,000 and 88,000 homes respectively. Whether these locally run ISPs ever emerge is an interesting thought since it will lead local councils into the tricky area of service provision and possible political control of services delivered or “surfed” for by their customers.

Fibre Taxation slowing the UK's broadband future.

The Government is in danger of creating a digital divide by discouraging investment in superfast connectivity unless it reviews the issue of fibre taxation. Despite Government backing next generation Internet applications and the use of fibre optic cable, it has continued to tax the rateable value of the basic infrastructure.

Elfed Thomas, CEO and founder of i3 Group, is calling on the Government to review the issue of fibre taxation ahead of the Digital Britain report expected later this month. He fears the imposition of the tax will create a digital divide between those companies able to afford the rate, and so benefit from superfast connectivity and those unable to offset the tax and thereby relying on the traditional copper networks.

He said: "Now is not the time for the Government to impose this tax. Fibre taxation is an issue which has been around for almost a decade but never before has it been such a potentially hot topic. Its resurgence comes as the Government is expected to back recommendations for the national deployment of dark fibre - to meet the requirement for universal Internet access to at least 2Mbps broadband speeds by 2012 in the Digital Britain report.

Given the Governments expressed commitment to ensure that the entire population has access to a less than ambitious 2Mbs, this is tax is clearly out of step with this aim.  It seems that the Treasury is still unaware of what is meant by “joined-up Government”.  With one branch of Government committed to improving Internet access for all whilst the Treasury tie the hands of industry behind its back by demanding an income from the means to deliver it!

Japan, Singapore, China, Sweden, Denmark and even Italy are rather more enlightened than the UK Government’s piece meal approach.  As I wrote last November in “When will the next generation broadband start to deliver for the UK”, our Government’s current approach and that of BT lacks the vision to deliver genuine advantage for UK plc in this crucial infrastructure.  Gordon Brown needs to get Lord Mandelson and Alastair Darling talking about something other than bonuses for failure in our Banks.

Further information @ H2O Networks site.

Virgin Media sinks deeper into the red but grows broadband!

The cable services provider Virgin Media had a difficult last quarter of 2008, with new customer sign ups dropping by a massive forty per cent.

The company posted losses of £50 million for the same quarter, which it said was due to the fact that it only managed to attract 14,800 new customers compared to 24,000 in the same period in 2007.  At the same time Virgin Media has seen a fall in customers taking out the profitable broadband, TV and phone packages, with only 185,000 sales in the last quarter compared to 272,100 in the same quarter of 2007.   However Virgin Media claims that "record numbers of customers" are now making use of its services and despite the economic crisis they have seen an increase of 57,100 on-net broadband customers, taking their total to 3.68 million.  This is just 1.5% growth in user numbers at a time when Virgin has been advertising heavily and launching new services such as the new 50Mb package at the end of last year

Virgin Media also noted an improvement in tier mix, with a third of their users now subscribing to their next-generation (10Mb and above) services.   Virgin Media also announced this week that it will be upgrading its 2Mbps broadband customers to a superfast 10Mbps service as it steps up its bid to become "the highest-quality broadband service in the UK". Indeed Virgin will begin migrating customers to the new connection in May, with prices for the 10Mbps package starting from £14 a month.

With Virgin’s broadband user numbers growing slower due to the economic downturn and increasing numbers of broadband users choosing to go to 3G Mobile broadband rather than tethered broadband.   Recently the Office of National Statistics indicated that fixed broadband has started to fall for the first time and this trend looks will have an impact on the major operators.  Expect to see aggressive price cuts to lure new customers from the major broadband ISPs such as BT and Sky during to spring of 2009 to compete with Virgin’s £14 a month 10Mb service.

At least Virgin has not yet decided to opt for Phorm like BT, however, there remain a number of legitimate revenue generating activities it could opt for now that it has deployed DPI (deep packet inspection) such as DNS and HTTP error monetisation.

UK Mobile Dongle User Numbers – Feb/March 2009

I have been researching the number of users now using 3G mobile dongles to link to the Internet in order to offer some insight into this largely hidden phenomenon.

Globally the market for 3G dongles is set to grow from 20 million units in 2008 to 26 million units in 2009 despite the downturn.

In Europe, some of the strongest growth has been recorded mainly due to the near saturation level of mobile usage compared to other parts of the world due to aggressive marketing push from the operators and the handset manufacturers.  This has resulted in an interesting development amongst Generation Y, those users born between 1978-2000.  This group have led the way in not bothering with fixed access telephony and are consequently adopting the 3G Dongle as their preferred method of Internet access.  Much of this growth is based on competitive all-you-can-eat tariffs and ease of use.

In the UK, which makes up approximately 3.5% of worldwide dongle sales, the mobile dongle user community now makes up over 4% of the overall broadband market.  These figures may not seem very impressive; however, with overall dongle sales set in 2009 to see 15% growth over 2008 and with the traditional broadband market at a standstill, the dongle market is likely to continue to make significant in-roads into the broadband market in 2009.  With increasing choice of low cost tariffs and user numbers in the UK could easily top one million by the end of 2009.

UK Market – February 2009

No	Operator	Number of Users	% Share	Comment
1	3	255,000	34%	The established leader of the dongle market, 3 has led the pack with its innovative pricing packages.
2	T-Mobile	161,000	22%	T-Mobile has used the UK as its primary test market for their dongle strategy and their innovative “webNwalk” service.
3	Vodafone	132,000	18%	Vodafone is the fastest growing of the major networks aggressively promoting and subsidising dongles because they are viewed as a secondary device that provides additional revenues for carriers beyond a traditional handset.
4	O2 (Dongles only)	122,000	16%	02 were the first major mobile network to enter the broadband market in the UK following its acquisition of Be, however, this seems to have been a distraction which has slowed their adoption of a dongle strategy.
5	Orange	57,000	7.7%	Orange seem to stumble from drama to crisis.  Their 3G Dongle strategy is little better.  They are seeing declining share of the broadband market and have been slow to put together a competitive offering for the dongle market.
6	Virgin Mobile	15,000	2%	Somewhat off the pace with their 3G dongle priced at £15 per month running over T-Mobiles network as MVNO.
	Total	742,000

To get an accurate picture, a number of published and unpublished sources have been used.  One needs to guard against the marketing hype that is put about regarding sales of individual networks, but the 3G dongle market is viewed as an area of vital importance by the mobile networks.  It will be interesting to see how the traditional ISPs respond.  Late in 2008, BT Broadband started to offer a WiFi dongle that connected to their network hotspots, BT Openzone, to their customers as an extension of their standard contract.  Neither  Sky or Tiscali have a competitive offering as yet, although Tiscali could still make a good fit for Vodafone.