UK ISP, Cable and Dongle User Numbers - Jan 2009

Here is an update of the UK ISP market covering DSL and Cable Access market as well as the first inclusion of the Mobile Dongle market in the UK. I have used ITU published data for Broadband usage numbers and Neilson Ratings to get an accurate picture as well all the reports and disclosures for each of the companies shown below. I believe these figures represent a reasonably accurate representation of the genuine adoption of broadband either via DSL, Cable or mobile dongle. Broadband connections included in this data cover download speeds equal to or faster than 256kbit/s.

ISP     Total    % of   UK Accts. BT 4,600,000 25.87% Virgin Media 3,885,800 21.86% CPW (inc AOL) 2,700,000 15.19% Sky 1,955,000 11.00% Tiscali UK 1,774,000 9.98% Orange 1,023,000 5.75% Royal Mail 560,000 3.15% O2 (Be & Dongles) 287,090 1.61% 3 (Mobile Dongles) 215,000 1.21% Kingston      195,255 1.10% T-Mobile (Dongle) 132,000 0.74% Thus 126,000 0.71% Vodafone (Dongle) 116,000 0.65% Entanet 92,000 0.52% Clara.net UK 72,000 0.40% Breathe 12,000 0.07% Supanet 6,000 0.03% Others 28,000 0.16% Total    17,779,145   100.00%

Following on from C&W acquisition of Thus, Kingston still look very vulnerable and would make a good fit for C&W or for Sky as they continue to make their play to achieve 3 million broadband users.  The Tiscali saga seems to have no end in sight and given the current economic climate the allure to perspective buyers of plain utility broadband (PUB) is looking increasingly unattractive.

One exciting area of development has been the inclusion of the growing “Internet Dongle” market.  T-Mobile, 3 and Vodafone are all significant players in this growing market and I have decided it is worth including them in the list as their business takes share from the PUB operators.

BT is beginning to roll out its 21st Century Network (21CN) and they are seeking to work with a whole range of ISP partners to offer new services.  The investment in 21CN must deliver much slicker broadband to ensure BT maintains top slot as Virgin and notably O2 are making great play of the 20 Meg plus services.  The rise of 3G Mobile Dongle market is beginning to mop up the rest of the available UK broadband demand and the only way to retain users will be through increased speed and extended range of services many of them bundle into the basic price.

This begs the question, where will future revenues come from?  PPC rates are declining across the board and Google is eating everyone’s lunch.  CPA continues to prosper, but it is a long way from the major sources of new media advertising revenue.  Let’s hope that it isn’t to the likes of Phorm that BT come to rely on from value added income from user activity.

US ISP and Cable Subscriber Numbers

I have recently been evaluating the US ISP market and trying to get accurate figures for Internet access for DSL, Cable Access and Dial-up. I worked with OECD published data for Broadband adoption and I have gone through all the reports and disclosures for each of the ISPs shown below. I believe these figures represent a reasonably accurate representation of the genuine adoption of broadband either via DSL or Cable. Broadband connections included in this data cover download speeds equal to or faster than 256kbit/s.

Table 1 US ISP & Cable Operators
Name	ADSL	Cable	Dial	Total
AOL			5,100,000	5,100,000
United Online	2,300,000			2,300,000
Road Runner		6,900,000		6,900,000
Earthlink	575,000		1,725,000	2,300,000
Embarq	1,100,000			1,100,000
Cox		3,500,000		3,500,000
Comcast		11,500,000		11,500,000
Charter	2,400,000			2,400,000
Cablevision		2,000,000		2,000,000
Suddenlink Comm		1,400,000		1,400,000
Bright House Networks		2,200,000		2,200,000
AT&T World net/BellSouth/SBC	10,500,000	6,500,000	3,000,000	20,000,000
Insight Communications		600,000		600,000
Verizon	7,000,000			7,000,000
Qwest	2,100,000			2,100,000
Media com		580,000		580,000
Cincinnati Bell	400,000			400,000
Local Net		260,000		260,000
Wind stream		400,000		400,000
Others			30,000,000	30,000,000
Totals	26,375,000	35,840,000	39,825,000	102,040,000
	Broadband Total	62,215,000

I believe that this table has the most accurate figures as regards DSL and Cable Access for each of the ISP or Cable Companies detailed in the Table at this point in time. I have not been able to ascertain any accurate data as regards dial-up access which remains surprisingly strong in the US. However, should anyone have any additional data or up to date, please let me know. I will add additional data for the UK and Europe as I can locate them out from published and unpublished sources.

The figure of 62,215,000 Broadband access either via DSL or Cable indicates around 8.7% growth over the figures published by the OECD in December 2006 which seems to be a reasonable assumption. I have included other forms of access either via Satellite or FTTH (Fibre-to-the-home) or FTTB (Fibre-to-the-building). I expect FTTH and FTTB to have grown significantly during 2007, but I haven't any specific data as such.